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Job Seekers Newsletter
January 2009
Welcome Everyone!
As we enter the new year, the job market news of layoffs continues, but there are some positive indications as well. We wish you the best of success for your job search! Our site and resources, plus the leadership of the job support groups, are here to help.
Comments About the U.S. Job Market
Unemployment Report
Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 524,000 in December, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor report of January 8th. Employment has fallen by 2.5 million in the past 12 months; the majority of the job cuts, 1.9 million, have taken place over the past four months. The current views of economists is that the unemployment rate will peak at 8% by Spring, 2009 and begin to decline the balance of the year.
GDP Forecast
The Conference Board produces monthly reports and analyses of the US economy. For 2009, the expectations for Gross Domestic Product (a measure of the total costs of goods and services produced) are:
- First quarter: -4.2%
- Second quarter: -.7%
- Third quarter: +2.2%
- Fourth quarter: +2.4%
If the forecast is reasonably accurate, we will need to get through the next few months to hopefully see movement to positive growth and a turnaround in the job market.
What's going on?
Puzzled by all this federal government action, especially the Federal Reserve, since early 2008? A little history helps:
Historians generally agree that there were two government actions that contributed to the financial collapse of the 1930’s. The well-known stock market crash of October 1929 was the flash point for events that ultimately moved the economy from a difficult recession to a depression:
- Federal Reserve Bank: In 1930 and the following few years, according to Dr. Milton Friedman, in his book “Free to Choose,” the Federal Reserve Bank acted to reduce the money supply by 28% by 1933. Result? With a smaller money supply, massive bank failures occurred across the US as banks were forced to close due to under-funding for credit, lending and daily operations.
- Smoot Hawley Tariff Act: In 1930, congress passed the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act, which raised the costs of goods imported to the US.
In a recent article, Dr. Thomas Sowell, economist and author, commented on the Smoot Hawley Act and federal actions of the 1930s:
- Unemployment rate prior to government actions: June 1930: 6.3%
- Unemployment rate after government actions: from February 1932, the unemployment rate never fell below 20% for any month until January 1935, when it fell to 19.3%.
Today’s Federal Reserve Bank is doing the opposite of the policies it pursued in the 1930's, determined that it will not take the blame for a financial meltdown. It is focused on growing the money supply, assuring both sufficient funding for daily operations and the credit markets and the solvency of financial institutions. Trade policies of the new congress will become known in the next six months.
Looking to the first half of 2009
The private sector of the economy will recover later this year, like it always does. Each recovery is different. While the numbers of job seekers has increased, we know that a large portion of the unemployed are the baby boomers, who have options of continuing in the job market, or retiring, or seeking other careers and part-time versus full-time, etc.. So the job search process and competition for jobs will be offset by a significant number of the unemployed who have choices about working (or not). Prediction: the "competition" among job seekers for jobs is less than it appears from the numbers.
What do Job Seekers think about the current market?
In a survey of 8800 workers by Careerbuilder taken late last year, job seekers reported:
- 19% stated that finding a new job was # 1 priority
- 60% stated that market conditions would not hold them back from seeking new opportunities
When asked what they are looking for in a new employer:
- Company's stability and longevity in the market (32 percent)
- Good career advancement opportunities (20 percent)
- Good work culture (14 percent)
- Ability to offer flexible schedules (12 percent)
Comment
If job seekers have this much confidence in the job market and their abiity to find employment, that is a positive sign. We need to maintain our faith in the US economy, its capacity for recovery and job creation. Let's get through the next few months and get back to growth later in 2009!
Alliance Partners
We support the following resources in service to job seekers:
- HACEUSA, a professional Hispanic Association
- Career Concepts USA: Job Fair resource
- Linkup.com job board resource
Networking Tip Of The Month
Accountability Groups are an excellent resource for job seekers who need help with staying on track and focused on the job search process. An Accountability Group:
- Is composed of four to six people who are committed to networking and assisting each other in job search
- Meets regularly at informal settings (coffee shops are #1 in popularity)
- Allows each person time for discussion of his/her issues, efforts, and next steps
- Holds each person accountable for performance
People who participate in such groups often state that they do not want to go to a meeting with nothing to report, so they get really busy! If you are struggling with the job search process, and staying motivated during the current climate, consider forming or joining an Accountability Group.
Networking Group of the Month
St. Raphael, Naperville IL
The St. Raphael Career Transition Network has been actively assisting job seekers in the western suburban area of Chicago for the past decade. Meeting once a month, the program consist of a guest speaker plus networking. For more information,go to St. Raphael CTN Keep up the good work!
Important Information
Leaders: please review your Job Support Group web page and see if all information is accurate and up-to-date. Please send any corrections to work@workministry.com.
Remember networkers: once you have landed your job, complete our landings survey.
Quote of the Month
"Every time that we try to lift a problem from our own shoulders, and shift that problem to the hands of the government, to the same extent we are sacrificing the liberties of our people." --John F. Kennedy
A Prayer While You Are In Transition
The will of God for your life is simply that you submit yourself to Him each day and say, "Father, Your will for today is mine. Your pleasure for today is mine. Your work for today is mine. I trust You to be God. You lead me today and I will follow."
- Kay Arthur
We hope you have enjoyed this month's Newsletter!
The Work Ministry Team
Contact us at work@workministry.com
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