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Job Seekers Newsletter
December 2008
Welcome Everyone!
Merry Christmas (and Happy Hanukah)!
We wish you and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas and, to our many Jewish friends, Happy Hanukah!
As we approach the new year, the job market news of layoffs continues, but there are some positive indications as well. We wish you the best of success for your job search! Our site and resources, plus the leadership of the job support groups, are here to help.
Comments About the U.S. Job Market
Unemployment Report
Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 533,000 in November, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor report of December 5th. Employment has fallen by 1.9 million in the first 11 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past 4 months.
GDP Report
The US economy (per first estimates) declined in output of goods and services by .3% in the 3rd quarter, compared to a growth of 2.8% in the second quarter. This month, the government reports suggest that the economy has slipped into recession during this current quarter of 2008. A recession is defined as two quarters of declining economic activity.
Manpower Survey for First Quarter, 2009
Manpower conducts a quarterly survey of 31,800 employers regarding hiring plans. Survey results are:
- 16% anticipate an increase in their staff levels
- 13% expect a reduction in their payrolls
- The above report yields net employment growth of 3%.
- Sixty-seven percent of employers surveyed expect no change
- 5% are undecided about their January through March hiring plans.
Note: the 67% of employers who do not expect changes will conduct some level of replacement hiring activity. Secondly, over the past few years, the % of companies reporting plans to add staff has been consistent, typically in the 14-16% range. In the same period, the % of companies reporting expectations of staff reductions has been in single digits, versus the 13% noted.
Any Good news out there?
Consider the following issues that help companies in today's business environment:
- Costs of most commodities (basic materials used to produce goods) are down from previous highs earlier this year, reducing costs to manufacturers and enabling many companies to continue operations without cost cutting moves such as layoffs.
- Recently, it was reported that Cash on hand for many companies was at record levels, which enables companies to finance operations internally versus reliance on bank lending and reduces pressures to cut costs.
- The US dollar is strong against all major currencies, enabling manufacturers and retailers to import goods at favorable prices, maintain profitabilty.
- The cost of a gallon of gas has declined by over 50% in the past few months, enabling consumers to spend the gains on other household needs. Estimated added purchasing power for US consumers is $350-400 billion over the next 12 months. And every business that spends significant dollars for gas is benefiting from the expense reduction.
Looking to the first half of 2009
Given the potentially weak job market over the next three to six months, we need to focus on the views of management teams about business conditions for 2009. Bear in mind the private sector where 136+ million of us work is responsible for providing leadership in job creation. There are two options:
- Optimistic: If management teams are confident about business prospects for next year, then budgets and plans for growth will steadily improve the job market for 2009, reversing current trends.
- Wait and see: If management teams conclude that they are uncertain or not confident about business conditions next year, then the default position of let's see what happens will prevail and the job market will struggle to regain its balance
What does wait and see look like? The job losses at the end of 2001 were 2 million, about 60% of which took place after 9/11. Job growth in the following two years was cautious as the nation awaited a second terrorist attack. By 2004, payrolls were restored to early 2001 levels.
Best case scenario: management teams make positive decisions to take risk, commit to working through the current period and not participate in the recession.
A Final Note
Our favorite measure of the job market is Recruiters. Despite the up, down, sometimes sideways movement of monthly job data this year, the unemployment rate of Recruiters is very low. Recruiters are the first people to lose their jobs in a genuine, widespread economic slowdown. That is not happening to date. Let's get past the current period and move on to 2009!
Alliance Partners
We support the following resources in service to job seekers:
- HACEUSA, a professional Hispanic Association
- Career Concepts USA: Job Fair resource
Networking Tip Of The Month
Linkedin.com use...
At present, there are over 20 million profiles on the Linkedin.com site. The site is heavily used by recruiters, many of whom do not pay fees to get direct access to contacts. Some key tips are:
- Add an email address to your profile, bypass all the intermediary steps and enable recruiters to contact you directly
- Add a photo if comfortable with the option, since it helps personalize the profile
- If you are no longer employed with the most recent employer, correct the profile and save recruiters the time calling your former employer
- Build your network of contacts continually, enabling you to expand your scope of relationships and potentially assist others
- Join groups that relate to your profession or specialty areas of interest
Networking Group of the Month
State of Michigan
The state of Michigan, at an official rate of unemployment of 8%+, is leading the nation versus the national average of 6.5%. We encourage everyone in the Michigan area to access the job support groups offered by the many volunteer programs available on the Workministry.com site: Michigan Job Support Groups
Important Information
Leaders: please review your Job Support Group web page and see if all information is accurate and up-to-date. Please send any corrections to work@workministry.com.
Remember networkers: once you have landed your job, complete our landings survey.
Quote of the Month
“What America needs is a law that will not allow Congress to meet more than six months a year- we could cut the damage in half overnight"
-Senator Barry Goldwater
A Prayer While You Are In Transition
The will of God for your life is simply that you submit yourself to Him each day and say, "Father, Your will for today is mine. Your pleasure for today is mine. Your work for today is mine. I trust You to be God. You lead me today and I will follow."
- Kay Arthur
We hope you have enjoyed this month's Newsletter!
The Work Ministry Team
Contact us at work@workministry.com
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